Look at these things, in this order: Community. Tokenomics. Product.

  1. High level analysis:
    1. Does this project fit my macro thesis/plan?
    2. Where does this fit in the meta game? https://cobie.substack.com/p/trading-the-metagame
    3. Are you taking a 10h or 10y view?
  2. Community
    1. What does the community look like? What is the potential virality?
    2. Who are the project team? Anon or doxed? What is their history?
    3. Who are the investors?
    4. Who are their partners? Is there any meat to the partnership - cross-mentions on websites, news, elsewhere?
    5. What does developer activity look like? Check Github.
  3. Tokenomics
    1. Figure out the tokenomics
  4. Product
    1. Fundamental analysis
      1. Is this a Winner, Retail Trap, Niche or Rekt?
      2. What is the governance?
    2. Competitor & industry analysis
      1. Growth - check Token Terminal for on-chain usage analysis - is it increasing?
      2. How has price performed compared to competitors?
      3. Industry
        1. How competitive is the industry generally?
        2. What does supply vs demand look like?
        3. How concentrated is the industry?
        4. How high are the barriers to entry?
        5. What does a high level SWOT analysis look like?
        6. Approx TAM?
    3. Valuation
      1. Gut feel on realistic TAM share and comparison to competitor valuations
    4. Overall sentiment
      1. Does this feel like a quality project? Why?
  5. Macro analysis
    1. Are interest rates rising? If so, tech stocks likely to suffer
    2. What are the most strongly-correlated assets and how are they acting? E.g. SPY, ARKK
  6. General crypto market analysis
    1. Check Fear/Greed Index
    2. Where are we on the PvP - PvE spectrum (player/environment)
    3. Check funding rates https://www.coinglass.com/funding/BTC (buy when funding rates are low, sell when high)
    4. Check MVRV (3 is take profits, 1 is remortgage to buy in) https://charts.coinmetrics.io/network-data/
  7. Technical analysis
    1. Where is the price now compared to 20/200 MAs?
    2. “Don’t diddle in the middle” via Cred/Don Alt
    3. Price history
      1. Has it outperformed your denominator asset? (e.g. ETH/BTC/USD?)
      2. Price stability/volatility since launch - what has been associated with significant dips/rises? Do some Googling.
    4. Gut feel on ‘beta’ risk
  8. Overall - why is it a good buy?
    1. What are the outcomes and probabilities? https://cobie.substack.com/p/probabilistic-thinking

Tokenomics analysis

References